gūjì: 估计 - To Estimate, To Reckon, Probably

• Keywords: gūjì, 估计, estimate Chinese, guess Chinese, I reckon in Chinese, probably in Chinese, how to say estimate in Mandarin, Chinese for probably, gūjì meaning, gūjì usage, gūjì vs dàgài
• Summary: Learn how to use the versatile Chinese word 估计 (gūjì), an essential term for everyday conversation. This page breaks down how 估计 (gūjì) functions both as a verb, meaning “to estimate” a number or amount, and as a common adverb meaning “probably,” “I guess,” or “I reckon.” Discover its cultural nuances, see practical example sentences, and understand how it differs from similar words like 大概 (dàgài) and 猜 (cāi). Mastering 估计 (gūjì) will make your Chinese sound more natural and authentic.

• Pinyin (with tone marks): gū jì
• Part of Speech: Verb, Adverb
• HSK Level: HSK 4
• Concise Definition: To estimate a value or to express that something is probable based on one's judgment.
• In a Nutshell: 估计 (gūjì) is your go-to word when you're not 100% certain but have a reasonable basis for your judgment. Think of it as the perfect blend of “to estimate,” “I guess,” “I reckon,” and “probably.” It's used for everything from guessing the cost of a meal to reckoning that it's about to rain.

• 估 (gū): This character is composed of the “person” radical (亻) on the left and 古 (gǔ), meaning “ancient,” on the right. It suggests a person appraising or valuing something, perhaps based on established knowledge. Its core meaning is “to appraise” or “to estimate.”
• 计 (jì): This character combines the “speech” radical (讠) with 十 (shí), the number “ten.” It points to the act of planning or calculating, often involving words and numbers. Its core meaning is “to calculate” or “to plan.”

Together, 估计 (gūjì) literally means “to appraise and calculate,” which perfectly captures its modern meaning of making a reasoned estimation or judgment.

In Chinese culture, expressing oneself with absolute certainty can sometimes be perceived as arrogant or too direct. 估计 (gūjì) provides a softer, more humble way to state an opinion or a fact you believe to be true. It signals, “This is my judgment based on the information I have, but I acknowledge it might not be perfect.” This contrasts with Western communication, where stating something as a direct fact is more common. For example, where an American might say, “He's late because of traffic,” a Chinese speaker might prefer, “我估计他是因为堵车迟到了” (Wǒ gūjì tā shì yīnwèi dǔchē chídào le) - “I reckon he's late because of traffic.” This small linguistic habit reflects a broader cultural value of leaving room for error and maintaining social harmony. It's less about a lack of confidence and more about a nuanced, considered approach to communication.

估计 (gūjì) is extremely common in daily life. Its usage splits into two main functions:

When used as a verb, 估计 (gūjì) is followed by a quantity, cost, time, or other measurable amount. It means to make a calculated guess about a number.

• Formality: Neutral. It's used in everyday conversation and in informal business contexts.
• Connotation: Neutral. It simply implies an approximation.

This is the most frequent use in conversation. Placed at the beginning of a sentence or clause, it indicates the speaker's personal judgment or guess about a situation. It's the equivalent of saying “I guess,” “I figure,” or “It looks like…”

• Formality: Informal to neutral. Perfect for daily chats with friends, family, and colleagues.
• Connotation: It shows you're thinking and making an inference, rather than stating a known fact.

• Example 1: (As a verb: estimating cost)
  • 我估计这顿饭要三百块左右。
  • Pinyin: Wǒ gūjì zhè dùn fàn yào sānbǎi kuài zuǒyòu.
  • English: I estimate this meal will cost around 300 RMB.
  • Analysis: Here, 估计 acts as a verb meaning “to estimate.” The speaker is making a calculated guess about the price.
• Example 2: (As an adverb: guessing a situation)
  • 天阴了，我估计快要下雨了。
  • Pinyin: Tiān yīn le, wǒ gūjì kuài yào xià yǔ le.
  • English: The sky is overcast; I guess it's going to rain soon.
  • Analysis: 估计 is used as an adverb to express a personal judgment based on an observation (the overcast sky).
• Example 3: (As an adverb: guessing someone's reason)
  • 他还没来，我估计他堵在路上了。
  • Pinyin: Tā hái méi lái, wǒ gūjì tā dǔ zài lùshang le.
  • English: He's not here yet; I reckon he's stuck in traffic.
  • Analysis: This is a very common use case—making a reasonable assumption about someone else's situation.
• Example 4: (As a verb: estimating time)
  • 你估计一下，我们开车到机场要多久？
  • Pinyin: Nǐ gūjì yíxià, wǒmen kāichē dào jīchǎng yào duōjiǔ?
  • English: Can you estimate how long it will take us to drive to the airport?
  • Analysis: The phrase 估计一下 (gūjì yíxià) is a common way to soften a request, meaning “make a quick estimate.”
• Example 5: (As an adverb: making a prediction)
  • 这次考试这么难，我估计很多人都考不好。
  • Pinyin: Zhè cì kǎoshì zhème nán, wǒ gūjì hěn duō rén dōu kǎo bù hǎo.
  • English: This exam is so difficult, I reckon a lot of people won't do well.
  • Analysis: The speaker is using their assessment of the difficulty to predict the outcome for others.
• Example 6: (As an adverb: guessing about a negative outcome)
  • 你再不走，我估计就赶不上火车了。
  • Pinyin: Nǐ zài bù zǒu, wǒ gūjì jiù gǎnbushàng huǒchē le.
  • English: If you don't leave now, I'm guessing you'll miss the train.
  • Analysis: 估计 here is used to express a likely negative consequence.
• Example 7: (As a verb: estimating a quantity)
  • 我估计今天会来二十个客人。
  • Pinyin: Wǒ gūjì jīntiān huì lái èrshí ge kèrén.
  • English: I estimate that twenty guests will come today.
  • Analysis: A straightforward use of 估计 as a verb for estimating numbers.
• Example 8: (As an adverb: self-correction)
  • 他为什么生气了？我估计是我说错话了。
  • Pinyin: Tā wèishénme shēngqì le? Wǒ gūjì shì wǒ shuō cuò huà le.
  • English: Why is he angry? I guess it's because I said something wrong.
  • Analysis: 估计 can be used for introspection or figuring out a personal mistake.
• Example 9: (As an adverb: expressing doubt about a plan)
  • 这个计划听起来不错，但我估计执行起来会很难。
  • Pinyin: Zhège jìhuà tīngqǐlái búcuò, dàn wǒ gūjì zhíxíng qǐlái huì hěn nán.
  • English: This plan sounds good, but I reckon it will be very difficult to implement.
  • Analysis: This shows 估计 being used to voice a gentle, personal reservation or concern.
• Example 10: (As a verb: formal context)
  • 专家估计，今年的经济增长率将在5%左右。
  • Pinyin: Zhuānjiā gūjì, jīnnián de jīngjì zēngzhǎng lǜ jiàng zài bǎi fēn zhī wǔ zuǒyòu.
  • English: Experts estimate that this year's economic growth rate will be around 5%.
  • Analysis: While common in conversation, 估计 is also perfectly acceptable in more formal contexts like news reports when citing an expert's estimate.

• 估计 (gūjì) vs. 猜 (cāi): Don't use 估计 for a pure, random guess. 猜 (cāi) is for guessing without any basis, like in a game.
  • Incorrect: 我估计你心里想的数字是7。(I estimate the number you're thinking of is 7.)
  • Correct: 我猜你心里想的数字是7。(I guess the number you're thinking of is 7.)
  • Rule of Thumb: If it's a shot in the dark, use 猜 (cāi). If it's a reasoned judgment, use 估计 (gūjì).
• 估计 (gūjì) vs. 大概 (dàgài): This is a subtle but important difference. 估计 often emphasizes the speaker's personal calculation or judgment (“I reckon…”). 大概 (dàgài) is slightly more objective, meaning “approximately” or “probably” based on general likelihood.
  • Personal Judgment: 我估计他今天不会来。(My personal feeling is he won't come.)
  • Objective Probability: 从这里到市中心，开车大概要一个小时。(From here to the city center, it's approximately a one-hour drive. - This is a general fact.)
  • While they can sometimes be interchangeable, using 估计 makes it sound more like your own personal take on the situation.
• Forgetting “我 (wǒ)”: When used as an adverb, 估计 is often preceded by “我 (wǒ)” to mean “I reckon…” While you can sometimes omit it (e.g., “估计要下雨了”), including “我” is very common and natural.

• 大概 (dàgài) - Probably; approximately. More objective and fact-based than the personal judgment of 估计.
• 猜 (cāi) - To guess. Used for random guesses or when there is very little information.
• 可能 (kěnéng) - Possibly; maybe. Expresses a general possibility, often with less certainty than 估计.
• 推测 (tuīcè) - To infer; to speculate. A more formal and analytical word, suggesting a conclusion drawn from evidence.
• 预计 (yùjì) - To forecast; to anticipate. More formal than 估计, often used in official reports, weather forecasts, or project plans.
• 预算 (yùsuàn) - Budget (noun); to budget (verb). A formal, pre-planned estimation of expenses.
• 差不多 (chàbuduō) - Almost; about the same. Used for approximations and comparisons, often interchangeable with 大概.